ERA uprates UK rental growth while Eurozone slows

The European Rental Association has made some small revisions to its European rental growth estimates for 2013 and 2014, slightly increasing the current year estimate from 0.8% to 1.0% and moderating growth next year to 2.2% from the previously forecast 2.5%.

The initial estimates were made in ERA’s 2012 report published in September/October last year and the April 2013 update was released by Marianne Chalcraft, chairperson of ERA’s statistics committee, at the ERA’s convention in Paris.

Although the growth rates for Europe are very similar to last year’s estimate – with very modest uptick this year before increasing slightly in 2014 – the update includes new estimates for individual countries, with significant changes to the estimates for Finland, Italy, Poland and the UK.

Finnish growth this year has been downgraded from 5.6% to 1.1%, while the impact of Italy’s economic slowdown on the rental sector has been downgraded, with revenues expected to fall by 2.5% rather than the larger 4.2% decline previously forecast.

Europe's largest rental market, the UK, is expected to grow by 5% this year, which is more than double the increase forecast last September. If correct, that will make the UK the region’s best performing rental market this year, ahead of Norway, where growth of 4.4% is anticipated this year.

Poland's rental sector is now expected to fall by 6.2% this year rather than the previous 4.1% decline estimated.

Rental revenue growth in Germany is forecast to grow at 2.0% this year, down from 3.0%, and France – which entered recession in the first quarter of the year – is expected to see a 1.8% decline in revenues in 2013 rather than the more modest 1.0% fall originally forecast.

Mrs Chalcraft said; “The ERA forecasts may contrast slightly with your own market expectations, but we believe our forecasts should be complementary to your own.”

The association is also anticipating that fleet investment levels this year will level off after growing by 17% and 24% in 2010 and 2011, respectively. The ERA estimates that €3.1 billion was invested by European rental companies last year and is forecasting that the industry will invest the same again this year. This compares to €6.8 billion in 2008.

ERA's rental market studies are conducted with consultant IHS Global Insight. The 2013 report, which will include a detailed review of the statistics for the UK, is scheduled for publication in October.